Do You Suffer from Normalcy Bias?

How many videos have you seen where a dirty, sweaty, wet, muddy, scared local exclaims to the camera, "I can't believe this! This just doesn't happen!"? Far too often, people are unprepared for the things that can happen in life… but it doesn't have to be that way.

"This just doesn't happen."

We see it almost every time there is a disaster — whether natural or human, a mudslide or a mass stabbing. The news channel shows locals expressing their dismay at what has happened, stunned that it happened "in their own backyard." It is easy to assume that since it hasn't happened to me, here, it isn't going to happen. Parents tell their children about the Great Blizzard of 78, the Flood of 82, the threat of tornados and hurricanes, but how much does it sink in? We seem to prepare based only on what we see ourselves. There's actually a name for this: Normalcy Bias.

Normalcy Bias

In simple terms, this refers to the thinking that "since a particular disaster has not happened to me, then it never will happen." Despite the warnings from our parents of natural and human disasters, the fact that so many of us are caught unprepared when things go wrong indicates we do suffer from a level of normalcy bias.⁴


Many Gulf Breeze residents were surprised by flooding, 2014²

We Minimize Damage through Preparation

Here are some examples of ways people work to minimize damage through preparation. Some probably even already apply to you!

Example: Aviation

In aviation, we often talk about chair flying: the practice of [often literally] sitting down in a chair and envisioning in detail the flight we are about to conduct. I rehearse ground procedures, the radio calls I will make, the altitudes I will fly at various points in the flight, the headings I will need—endless details about each event are done in my mind before I ever get in the jet. In military aviation, we also have Emergency Procedures (EPs) which are committed to memory. But more than simply memorizing the words, we frequently discuss scenarios that could lead to an emergency, and we determine how to handle it in case it ever happens, although we hope it won't.

Example: Self-Defense Classes

Many states require those who apply for a license to carry a weapon for self-defense to first attend classes teaching them how to do so responsibly and safely. In such classes, an instructor may present scenarios and ask the students how they will react. If you saw a man get out of his truck, pick up a screaming 4-year old girl and her tricycle and put them in the truck and drive off… do you shoot him? (Hint: No.) Did you just witness an abduction, or a father who had been scared to death because his little girl was lost (or rode away in a tantrum) and he just found her to take her home? People generally understand that we only employ deadly force when necessary, but classes like this teach people to think about scenarios in order to determine what is truly necessary. By thinking of things in advance, we aren't left to make split-second decisions of life and death.

Example: Childhood Lessons

While not as threatening as life-and-death emergencies in a flight or under the gun, we can take a lesson from youth group pastors. We teach our children how to respond to events a teenager is likely to encounter: such as when somebody offers you drugs or sex. "It is important," they tell us, "that you have already made the decision about what you are going to do before you are in the situation. If you don't decide until then, the pressure will likely cause you to make a bad decision." Years later I began to realize to how many things in life this truly applies.

Even before that, we tell our young children, "If a man in a black van offers you candy, say 'No,' and go find an adult!" Or, perhaps you have heard about "Stop! Drop! Roll!"

By making all these decisions in advance, we are prepared to handle emergencies as soon as they happen. We aren't left running around on fire looking for a pool; we aren't left wondering if we should pull the trigger or the Ejection Handle.

How to Prepare

Identify & Assess Hazards

You know best what your situation is. Use that knowledge to determine what the greatest risks are for you and your loved ones. Give consideration to both the probability and the severity of each hazard. A hazard that is quite likely but has only small consequences might require little preparation. However, a moderately likely event which has more serious consequences should definitely be addressed.

The Marine Corps uses this matrix to determine each hazard's Risk Assessment Code (RAC), 1-5. You certainly don't need to go through the formality of using a chart and worksheet like Marines do, but it does help you see how probability and severity should be balanced.


Marine Corps Risk Assessment Matrix³

Make Risk Decisions

Having identified and assessed a hazard, you need to make decisions about what you can do to mitigate the risks. It is at this point that you may spend some time talking with friends and family about how you can prepare for something. Maybe what your neighbor has done would work well for you, if only you talked to him about it. Due diligence will pay off, and here is where it really comes into play as you think of ways to prepare, so spend the time researching and decide on ways to mitigate the risks.

The Marine Corps would have you assign a new Risk Assessment Code with the decisions included. For example, there may have been a high risk of heat stroke for the field event, so a control may be to have a corpsman on location with buckets of ice, which would lower the risk to an acceptable level. What this means for us is simply that we think, "Is this going to be enough to mitigate the risk? Do I need to do more to be prepared for this?"

Implement Controls

Now that you've done a lot of research and decided on how to mitigate the risks, go do what you decided to do! Buy the hurricane shutters for your house and install them over the windows. Get a physical done and get a life insurance policy. Sign up for a defensive shooting class and buy your first gun. Set up an automatic deposit into a high-yield savings account to start building up your emergency cash reserves. Contact your out-of-state relatives to ask if you can evacuate to their house if a hurricane is coming your way and print out a map to their house.

Repeat!

The world is always turning, so the risks keep changing. As your family grows, as you mature, continue to monitor your situation for new risks you haven't planned for yet. Think about what can go wrong with the plans you've already set up and consider making changes if you find weak spots.

The cycle repeats itself. The goal is to always be mindful of your environment and what threats it presents, and think about how to handle them before you have to handle them. That way, you will know you are handling it in the best way and not in an impulsive, reckless way.

Pensacola Flooding

Aerial photo of flooding near Pensacola, FL, 2014¹

I'll admit, the recent flooding in Pensacola—on the order of a hundred year event—caught me off guard. I was fortunate enough to be unscathed this time, but I have begun taking steps to ensure I'm more prepared in the future. I encourage you to respond in a like manner!

Post Script

This way of thinking doesn't apply only to disasters. The concept of assessing risks and implementing controls is applied just as effectively to planning for your retirement, preparing for sudden unemployment, improving your health, and achieving your life goals. Assess the situation. Think about what you have to do to achieve the desired result. Then go put the plan into action.

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1. From Pensacola News Journal, retrieved 15 May 2014. ↩
2. From Pensacola News Journal, retrieved 15 May 2014. She may not have actually been showing surprise here, but you get the point.↩
3. Marine Corps Operational Risk Management, retrieved 15 May 2014.↩
4. Normalcy Bias on Wikipedia.↩